Stocks traded lower in a late-month sell-off as sentiment weakened. The S&P 500’s decline erased most of its post-election gains, which expectations for stronger growth and deregulation under the new administration had driven. Smaller companies underperformed, with the Russell 2000 ending the month more than -10% below its late November peak. Under the surface, the January market rotation continued as last year’s outperformers lagged. The Magnificent 7, a group of mega-cap tech stocks that drove most of 2024’s gains, fell by -8% and dragged down the Nasdaq 100, the Large Cap Growth factor, and the S&P 500.

Stocks traded higher to start 2025, but there was a change in market leadership as the rally broadened. Large Cap Value, which underperformed over the past 12 months, outperformed Large Cap Growth by over +2.5% in January. Likewise, the Dow Jones Index traded back toward its all-time high from early December after finishing the year in a downtrend. In contrast, the Growth factor, Nasdaq 100, and Technology sector each underperformed the S&P 500 after propelling the index higher throughout most of 2024.

The US presidential election results fueled November’s stock market rally as investors focused on the incoming administration’s policy agenda and its implications. With Republicans taking control of the White House, Senate, and House in January, the following section discusses key policy areas to watch and potential market and economic impacts.

Stocks finished October lower as investors navigated Q3 earnings, the upcoming election, and uncertain Federal Reserve policy. Treasury yields climbed as investors considered the possibility that the Fed may not cut interest rates as much as previously expected. Concerns about fiscal spending also drove Treasury yields higher, with expectations for continued high government spending regardless of the election outcome.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates at its next meeting on September 17th. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the move at last month’s Jackson Hole conference by saying, “The time has come for policy to adjust."

The S&P 500 Index returned +1.2% in July, underperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s +10.3% return. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, led by Real Estate, Utilities, and Financials. Technology was the only sector to trade lower, reversing a portion of its rise in the first half of 2024.

The topic of interest rate cuts continues to dominate the financial markets. Investors are focused on when the Federal Reserve will lower rates, all while keeping a close eye on corporate earnings and valuations. In this update, we recap the second quarter, discuss investors’ focus on the Federal Reserve, and look ahead to the themes to monitor for the rest of 2024.

The S&P 500 set a new all-time high in May after trading lower in April. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gained +6.2% and set a new all-time high. What caused stocks and bonds to rebound after the April sell-off? The answer: Labor market and inflation data.

The S&P 500, despite trading lower in April, has gained +5.9% this year. The sharp rise in Treasury yields is one of the biggest stories this year. At the start of 2024, investors expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in March. The U.S. economy’s resilience to higher rates is another reason the Fed is not rushing to cut rates.

Stocks traded higher in February, with the rally broadening after large cap stocks accounted for most of January’s gains. The S&P 500 traded above 5,000 for the first time, setting a new all-time high, and has now returned +21.5% since the start of November.

Stocks traded higher to start the new year, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each setting new all-time highs. In continuation of last year’s trend, the companies with the biggest market caps accounted for a substantial portion of the early-year gains.

The S&P 500 recorded its biggest monthly gain since July 2022 and currently trades less than 5% below its all-time closing high. The NASDAQ 100 Index gained +10.8% as mega-cap growth stocks such as Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA traded toward new all-time highs.

The S&P 500 gained more than 20% through the end of July but has since declined 8.3% over the past three months, bringing its year-to-date gain to 10.6%. A significant factor behind the recent equity market sell-off has been the sharp rise in interest rates.

The August market action is a continuation of the primary trend we have seen this year. The market remains fixated on the Fed’s next move, including how high the Fed will raise interest rates and whether it will cut interest rates in 2024.

The August market action is a continuation of the primary trend we have seen this year. The market remains fixated on the Fed’s next move, including how high the Fed will raise interest rates and whether it will cut interest rates in 2024.

The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to five months in July, bringing its year-to-date total return to 20.5%. The S&P 500 has now recovered most of its losses from 2022 and is currently trading less than 5% below its all-time closing high set in January 2022.

One of the factors contributing to Technology’s strong 2023 return is excitement around artificial intelligence, or AI. AI, which refers to the ability of a digital computer or a machine to perform tasks commonly associated with human intelligence, is being hailed as the next big technological advance.

The US economy grew at a +1.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023, marking a decline from the +2.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Based on January economic data and fourth-quarter data revisions, the U.S. economy appears to be in a stronger position than economists forecast. Job growth was robust in January as U.S. employers added 517,000 jobs, well above the average.

Looking ahead to 2023, the U.S. economy is forecasted to slow as the cumulative effect of higher interest rates takes hold.