Global Markets Trade Higher After April Sell-Off

Monthly Client Letter
Written By Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®
Global city

Photo Credit: OJ Serrano, Unsplash

Monthly Market Summary

  • The S&P 500 Index gained +5.1%, slightly outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s +5.0% return. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, led by Utilities.

  • Corporate investment-grade bonds produced a +2.2% total return as Treasury yields fell, outperforming the corporate high-yield bond index’s +1.6% total return.

  • International stock performance was varied. The MSCI EAFE developed market stock index returned +5.1%, while the MSCI Emerging Market Index returned +2.0%.


Stocks and Bonds Rebound in May Driven by Mega Cap Technology

The S&P 500 set a new all-time high in May after trading lower in April. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gained +6.2% and set a new all-time high, with mega-cap stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook-parent Meta leading the recovery. Notably, smaller companies also participated in the rally, with the Russell 2000 Index now showing positive YTD returns. In the credit market, Treasury yields reversed a portion of their April rise. The U.S. Bond Aggregate Index, which tracks a wide range of investment grade bonds, gained +1.7% as yields fell. What caused stocks and bonds to rebound after the April sell-off? The answer: Labor market and inflation data.


US Sector Returns (May in %)

US Sector Returns for May 2024

US Style Returns (May in %)

US Style Returns for May 2024

Shifting Economic Data Has Increased Market Volatility in 2Q 2024

Today, the economy and Federal Reserve policy are the focus. Investors analyze every new data point to extrapolate the trend. Labor market and inflation data are considered most relevant because the Fed aims for maximum employment and stable prices. Softer labor market data and lower inflation are viewed as pushing forward rate cuts, while stronger labor market data and higher inflation delay the expected timing of rate cuts.

In early April, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. added 315,000 jobs in March, causing unemployment to fall to 3.8%. A few weeks later, data showed Core CPI, which measures inflation excluding energy and food, held steady at 3.8% year-over-year. The combination of lower unemployment and unchanged inflation signaled a strong labor market and sticky inflation, leading investors to lower interest rate cut expectations.

In May, the latest labor market and inflation data signaled the opposite. The U.S. added 175,000 jobs, the slowest pace since October 2023, and unemployment rose to 3.9%. Inflation data revealed that Core CPI fell to 3.6% year-over-year, the lowest reading since April 2021. These data points marked a shift from the previous month, signaling a softer labor market and easing inflation. After lowering rate cut expectations in April, the demand increased in May. Treasury yields declined, and stocks traded higher.

As April and May showed, monthly economic data can be noisy. It can signal a strong trend one month and then the opposite trend the next month, causing investors to shift their views abruptly. This market volatility could continue over the summer until there is more certainty around Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and economic growth.

 

Important Disclosures
This material is provided for general and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Your investments should correspond to your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance. Please consult an investment professional before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities, or investment-related service or product, including any investment product or service described in these materials.

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Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

I am currently the Managing Partner for our independent investment advisory firm, Optima Capital Management. Together with my business partners, Todd Bendell CFP® and Clinton Steinhoff, we founded Optima Capital in 2019 as a forward-thinking wealth management firm that serves as an investment fiduciary and family office for high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition to being the Chief Compliance Officer, my role at Optima Capital is portfolio management. I have over 18 years of experience in managing investment strategies and portfolios. I specialize in using fundamental and technical analysis to build custom portfolios that utilize individual equities, bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). I began my financial services career with Merrill Lynch in 2003. At Merrill, I served in the leadership roles of Market Sales Manager and Senior Resident Director for the Scottsdale West Valley Market in Arizona. On Wall Street Magazine recognized me as one of the Top 100 Branch Managers in 2017. I am originally from Saginaw, Michigan, and a marketing graduate from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. I am a Certified Private Wealth Advisor® professional. The CPWA® certification program is an advanced credential created specifically for wealth managers who work with high net worth clients, focusing on the life cycle of wealth: accumulation, preservation, and distribution. In addition, I hold the following designations - Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC®), Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CDFA®), Certified Plan Fiduciary Advisor (CPFA), and Retirement Management Advisor (RMA®). In the community, I am a member of the Central Arizona Estate Planning Council (CAEPC) and serve as an alumni advisor and mentor to student organizations at Arizona State University. My interests include traveling, outdoors, fitness, leadership, entrepreneurship, minimalism, and computer science.

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