Wage Inflation Puts Additional Pressure on the Federal Reserve

Chart of the Month
Written By Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®
Wage Inflation Puts Additional Pressure on the Fed

Photo Credit: Marten Bjork, Unsplash

Inflation remains a closely watched topic in financial markets. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased +6.6% year-over-year during September. It was the fastest annual pace since August 1982 and signaled inflation’s persistence. Early inflation pressures were attributed to clogged supply chains and strong demand overwhelming limited supply, but a new source of inflation is gaining attention as supply chains normalize – wage inflation.

Hourly Earnings Growth (% Year-Over-Year)

Hourly Earnings Growth Chart

The Hourly Earnings Growth Chart shows hourly wages increased +5% year-over-year during September. The growth rate, which is significantly above the pre-pandemic trend, indicates labor demand is outpacing labor supply, and employers are paying more to attract and retain workers.

What is causing the labor supply and demand imbalance?

Data shows millions of workers left the labor market during the pandemic and have not returned.

Not in Labor Force (Millions)

Labor Force Chart

The Labor Force Chart graphs the number of people not in the labor force, which is defined as persons who are neither employed nor unemployed. This category includes retired persons, students, individuals taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work. The chart shows 95 million individuals were not in the labor force at the end of February 2020. The number spiked to 103.5 million at the end of April 2020 as workers left the labor market due to virus and health concerns, childcare responsibilities, and early retirements. While some of those individuals returned to the labor market, nearly 5 million more people were not in the labor force at the end of September 2022.

Another thing that makes it hard for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation under control is wage inflation. All eyes will be on the labor market in the coming months. Bringing the labor market back into balance could help lower wage inflation, but it could also make unemployment much worse. Even though there is a risk to jobs in the short term, the Fed thinks that the risk of inflation becoming entrenched is a more significant long-term risk.

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Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

I am currently the Managing Partner for our independent investment advisory firm, Optima Capital Management. Together with my business partners, Todd Bendell CFP® and Clinton Steinhoff, we founded Optima Capital in 2019 as a forward-thinking wealth management firm that serves as an investment fiduciary and family office for high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition to being the Chief Compliance Officer, my role at Optima Capital is portfolio management. I have over 18 years of experience in managing investment strategies and portfolios. I specialize in using fundamental and technical analysis to build custom portfolios that utilize individual equities, bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). I began my financial services career with Merrill Lynch in 2003. At Merrill, I served in the leadership roles of Market Sales Manager and Senior Resident Director for the Scottsdale West Valley Market in Arizona. On Wall Street Magazine recognized me as one of the Top 100 Branch Managers in 2017. I am originally from Saginaw, Michigan, and a marketing graduate from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. I am a Certified Private Wealth Advisor® professional. The CPWA® certification program is an advanced credential created specifically for wealth managers who work with high net worth clients, focusing on the life cycle of wealth: accumulation, preservation, and distribution. In addition, I hold the following designations - Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC®), Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CDFA®), Certified Plan Fiduciary Advisor (CPFA), and Retirement Management Advisor (RMA®). In the community, I am a member of the Central Arizona Estate Planning Council (CAEPC) and serve as an alumni advisor and mentor to student organizations at Arizona State University. My interests include traveling, outdoors, fitness, leadership, entrepreneurship, minimalism, and computer science.

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