Stock markets remained volatile during October, once again changing direction as investors shifted their views. After declining -9.2% during September, the S&P 500 gained +8.1% during October.

Early inflation pressures were attributed to clogged supply chains and strong demand overwhelming limited supply, but a new source of inflation is gaining attention as supply chains normalize – wage inflation.

The S&P 500 finished the third quarter down -4.9%, while the 2-year Treasury yield reached levels not seen since 2007. This recap covers the third quarter and provides an update on the key questions markets faced at the start of the third quarter.

When transitioning jobs, consider the implications for your old 401(k) carefully. Preserving the tax benefits of your investments may substantially improve your ability to grow your wealth over time.

Investors were surprised by the 0.1% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The report will likely push the Federal Reserve to persist with its aggressive campaign of interest rate increases.

We currently project that the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index will approach 50 during the next three months before dipping below 50 (i.e., manufacturing contraction) during 1Q23.

After declining during the pandemic, data shows consumer credit usage is rising again and is now back above pre-pandemic levels.

The ability to optimize the amount of benefits you will receive from Social Security will depend on your situation.

Investor hopes for a Fed pivot were one of the primary catalysts that propelled the stock market higher during July and August. Chair Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole dashed those hopes.

Why is productivity declining? One potential explanation is that pandemic-related themes, such as remote work and inflation, make measuring productivity more difficult and distort the data.

Why the change in attitude? Multiple catalysts could be causing the turnaround, one of which includes investor sentiment being too negative entering July.

The ongoing housing market slowdown indicates the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases are already impacting the economy.

In response to persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve continued tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates at each April, May, and June meeting.

The Fed is expected to keep raising interest rates at its meetings later this year, although the amount of interest rate increases remains an open question.

In the near term, the outlook for the exact track the market will follow is uncertain because of all these factors that leave the market searching for direction.

Why are stocks and bonds declining together? The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet by selling bonds, which pressures both stock and bond valuations.

Low-interest rates and bond purchases stabilized the U.S. economy during the Covid pandemic, but removing the two pandemic-era monetary policies is proving to be enormously disruptive.

Recession fears may make the Fed's task of stabilizing prices harder, as painfully higher interest rates fight inflation underpinned by supply constraints.

In our view, it is the sum total of rate hikes that matters in terms of the future value of equities, as opposed to simply timing and speed.

January 2022’s personal savings rate of 6.1% was the lowest since December 2013.