Investors were surprised by the 0.1% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The report will likely push the Federal Reserve to persist with its aggressive campaign of interest rate increases.

We currently project that the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index will approach 50 during the next three months before dipping below 50 (i.e., manufacturing contraction) during 1Q23.

After declining during the pandemic, data shows consumer credit usage is rising again and is now back above pre-pandemic levels.

The ability to optimize the amount of benefits you will receive from Social Security will depend on your situation.

Investor hopes for a Fed pivot were one of the primary catalysts that propelled the stock market higher during July and August. Chair Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole dashed those hopes.

Why is productivity declining? One potential explanation is that pandemic-related themes, such as remote work and inflation, make measuring productivity more difficult and distort the data.

Why the change in attitude? Multiple catalysts could be causing the turnaround, one of which includes investor sentiment being too negative entering July.

The ongoing housing market slowdown indicates the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases are already impacting the economy.

In response to persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve continued tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates at each April, May, and June meeting.

The Fed is expected to keep raising interest rates at its meetings later this year, although the amount of interest rate increases remains an open question.

In the near term, the outlook for the exact track the market will follow is uncertain because of all these factors that leave the market searching for direction.

Why are stocks and bonds declining together? The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet by selling bonds, which pressures both stock and bond valuations.

Low-interest rates and bond purchases stabilized the U.S. economy during the Covid pandemic, but removing the two pandemic-era monetary policies is proving to be enormously disruptive.

Recession fears may make the Fed's task of stabilizing prices harder, as painfully higher interest rates fight inflation underpinned by supply constraints.

In our view, it is the sum total of rate hikes that matters in terms of the future value of equities, as opposed to simply timing and speed.

January 2022’s personal savings rate of 6.1% was the lowest since December 2013.

Our view is that private markets with limited liquidity are the most significant risk to the public equity market. The Fed tightening monetary policy, raising rates, and shrinking its balance sheet point to the desire to curb demand and limit risk-taking.

The Fed tightening up is not necessarily an indication that inflation will ease. While this is the idea behind their actions, historically, it is not always the result.

There was no shortage of events for the market to navigate, including the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate increase since December 2018, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and stubbornly high inflation pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s goal is to raise interest rates to ease inflation pressure, but it could have the added side effect of slower economic growth.